Domestic oil prices will reduce the price adjustment cycle "22+4%" mode is expected to break
2016.04.15
With the national development and Reform Commission on the adjustment of the price adjustment period clear statement, 22 + 4% of the refined oil pricing mechanism or will usher in a new model. Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, recently said that it will improve the price formation mechanism of refined oil, shorten the price adjustment cycle, improve the price adjustment operations, improve the transparency of the work of institutions.
Three places where the rate of change of crude oil has been broken "four"
In February 8th this year, oil prices fell, Brent, Dubai, three changes in the statistical Shinta entered a new round of cycle rate. JOYOU information monitoring shows that as of February 28th, three to 118.158 dollars in oil for 22 days moving average price of $111.907 a barrel, a barrel of the benchmark price, 5.59% and three of the crude oil rate has far exceeded the 4% limit.
From last year's price adjustment, less than 15 working days, Sanyuan oil change rate has exceeded 4%, which is not much in the past. This shows the complexity of the international oil price change.
It is estimated that, regardless of international oil prices are up and down, in March 22nd the international crude oil price benchmark crude oil prices and last year's benchmark price compared to, or more than 4%. In accordance with the "oil price management approach", the national development and Reform Commission of the 2009 versions, can be re increase domestic gasoline and diesel prices in March 10th.
"22 + 4%" mode caused by the price adjustment cycle lag
"We all know that oil prices will not be adjusted temporarily. Because the price adjustment is calculated from February 8th, although in line with the requirements of the size of the change, but also need to meet the conditions of 22 working days." JOYOU information market analyst Wang Jintao told reporters that the current pricing mechanism, making the price adjustment time lag, there is a strong predictability."
With the international crude oil property is more obvious, short-term fluctuations in international oil prices, due to the long 22, the current pricing mechanism is difficult to reflect the short-term trend of rising prices, the domestic refined oil market, but a lot of time is expected to increase, speculation and hoarding oil arbitrage increase.
In addition, the "4%" fixed interest rates are not reasonable. If three, 22 crude oil moving average of $100 / barrel as a benchmark, when prices rose 4 to 104 U.S. dollars / barrel, oil prices rise, and raised $104 / barrel will become the new benchmark price, international crude oil prices fell to $4.16 again to 4% regulatory conditions. This caused a period of rising and falling is not equal.
"Let go of the oil price" is not "free oil control"
"Shorten the adjustment period, the price adjustment will increase the frequency of a corresponding reduction in every price adjustment, and can realize the oil price from" lag pricing "gradual transition to" real-time pricing ", the oil price reform towards a more reasonable direction. Information Analyst Chen Qing believes that through these Interim Measures, the domestic refined oil market pricing gradually close completely."
For the improvement of the operation mode of the week, improve the transparency of the mechanism operation, there is not yet a detailed conclusion. However, the market is more in a certain condition of speculation, the price adjustment for the two groups, or choose a neutral intermediary agencies such as Xinhua news agency to measure the price adjustment.
Chen believes that the release of oil prices, just let go of oil prices, not absolute oil price liberalization". In view of the special status of the oil consumption and the uncertainty of the future energy supply, Chinese oil price cannot and should not completely with the fluctuations of international oil prices, in the special case is bound to the oil price to a certain degree of intervention and control.
Three places where the rate of change of crude oil has been broken "four"
In February 8th this year, oil prices fell, Brent, Dubai, three changes in the statistical Shinta entered a new round of cycle rate. JOYOU information monitoring shows that as of February 28th, three to 118.158 dollars in oil for 22 days moving average price of $111.907 a barrel, a barrel of the benchmark price, 5.59% and three of the crude oil rate has far exceeded the 4% limit.
From last year's price adjustment, less than 15 working days, Sanyuan oil change rate has exceeded 4%, which is not much in the past. This shows the complexity of the international oil price change.
It is estimated that, regardless of international oil prices are up and down, in March 22nd the international crude oil price benchmark crude oil prices and last year's benchmark price compared to, or more than 4%. In accordance with the "oil price management approach", the national development and Reform Commission of the 2009 versions, can be re increase domestic gasoline and diesel prices in March 10th.
"22 + 4%" mode caused by the price adjustment cycle lag
"We all know that oil prices will not be adjusted temporarily. Because the price adjustment is calculated from February 8th, although in line with the requirements of the size of the change, but also need to meet the conditions of 22 working days." JOYOU information market analyst Wang Jintao told reporters that the current pricing mechanism, making the price adjustment time lag, there is a strong predictability."
With the international crude oil property is more obvious, short-term fluctuations in international oil prices, due to the long 22, the current pricing mechanism is difficult to reflect the short-term trend of rising prices, the domestic refined oil market, but a lot of time is expected to increase, speculation and hoarding oil arbitrage increase.
In addition, the "4%" fixed interest rates are not reasonable. If three, 22 crude oil moving average of $100 / barrel as a benchmark, when prices rose 4 to 104 U.S. dollars / barrel, oil prices rise, and raised $104 / barrel will become the new benchmark price, international crude oil prices fell to $4.16 again to 4% regulatory conditions. This caused a period of rising and falling is not equal.
"Let go of the oil price" is not "free oil control"
"Shorten the adjustment period, the price adjustment will increase the frequency of a corresponding reduction in every price adjustment, and can realize the oil price from" lag pricing "gradual transition to" real-time pricing ", the oil price reform towards a more reasonable direction. Information Analyst Chen Qing believes that through these Interim Measures, the domestic refined oil market pricing gradually close completely."
For the improvement of the operation mode of the week, improve the transparency of the mechanism operation, there is not yet a detailed conclusion. However, the market is more in a certain condition of speculation, the price adjustment for the two groups, or choose a neutral intermediary agencies such as Xinhua news agency to measure the price adjustment.
Chen believes that the release of oil prices, just let go of oil prices, not absolute oil price liberalization". In view of the special status of the oil consumption and the uncertainty of the future energy supply, Chinese oil price cannot and should not completely with the fluctuations of international oil prices, in the special case is bound to the oil price to a certain degree of intervention and control.
