BP World Energy Outlook: transition to a low carbon future
2016.05.24
"BP World Energy Outlook (2016 Edition)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Outlook") Chinese version 26, released in Beijing.
Despite the current global energy market weakness, China economic slowdown, but with the development of world economy, the world will need more energy to support economic and social activities are more active, the next twenty years and beyond energy demand will continue to grow.
"Outlook" pointed out that the global energy demand from 2014 to 2035 is expected to grow by 34%, the average annual growth of 1.4%. As the world begins to transition to a low-carbon future, in the process of overall growth in demand, energy structure will be significantly changed, the growth rate of low-carbon fuels will be more than carbon intensive fuels.
"Prospect" looks at the long-term energy development trend, and forecasts the development of the world energy market in the next twenty years. BP group chief economist Dai Sipan and BP group chief executive officer Dead in February this year in London jointly issued the "BP World Energy Outlook (2016 Edition)".
Dade Li said, "in the oil and gas prices continued to slump, it is important not only to adapt to the current grim situation, but also to prepare for the next series of challenges. Energy industry is a long cycle industry, we need to think about how we can change the pattern of energy in the long term."
"This year's" Outlook "shows that the world's demand for energy supply will continue to grow, but the energy supply structure is changing, the demand for carbon intensive fuels will be less and less. In spite of this, there is a need to take further policy action to achieve the limits of international carbon emissions targets."
Oil and gas is still an important source of growth.
Although other forms of energy increased rapidly, but the "Outlook" forecasts from now to 2035, fossil fuels will still be the main form of energy, will meet 60% of the energy demand is expected to increase, and accounted for nearly 80% of the world's total energy supply in 2035.
Natural gas will become the fastest growing fossil fuel, the annual growth rate of 1.8%. Oil will grow steadily at a rate of 0.9% a year, but its share in the energy mix will continue to fall. Coal growth is expected to slow sharply, in 2035 its share in the energy mix will fall to historic lows, while the natural gas will replace coal as the second largest source of fuel.
Growth in non fossil fuels is expected to exceed the expectations of last year's "outlook". Including bio fuels, including renewable energy is expected to grow by about 6.6% years, its proportion in the energy structure will increase from the current 9% to 3% in 2035.
Demand driven factors
Dai Sipan believes that, with the development of the world economy, will require more energy to support more active social and economic activities. Expected in the next 20 years, global energy demand will continue to grow."
Income and population are the main drivers of the growing demand for energy. By 2035, the world's population is expected to be close to 8 billion 800 million, which means that the need to provide energy for the 1 billion 500 million new population. In the same period, the global GDP is expected to grow more than double, while China and India will contribute half of the global GDP increment.
"The economy is China towards a more sustainable growth model reform, energy demand growth will Chinese slowed sharply, which will seriously inhibit the global coal demand, its growth will be less than 1/5 of the past 20 years." Dai Sipan explained, "the world is undergoing fundamental change, which is evident in the types and patterns of consumption."
More than half of the global energy consumption will be used to generate electricity, this part of the incremental mainly from the majority of the population lack sufficient power supply area.
Power generation industry is a kind of industry competing for all kinds of fuel. As renewable energy and natural gas power generation gradually replace the traditional thermal power generation, power generation industry will play an important role in the evolution of the fuel structure. Renewable energy power generation is expected to account for more than 1/3 of the expected power generation growth.
Strong growth in emerging economies will push up oil demand, while China and India account for more than half of the world's demand growth, while the number of cars in the world will double.
Supply increase
Benefit from strong growth in shale gas production in the world, the supply of natural gas will be steady improvement, annual growth is expected to reach 5.6%. Shale gas accounted for the proportion of total natural gas production will rise from 10% in 2014 to nearly 25% in 2035. At the end of the forecast period, China will be the country with the largest contribution to shale gas production.
By 2035, the global oil supply will increase by nearly 19 million barrels a day, the supply of non OPEC countries will lead growth - in particular, the United States shale oil. OPEC's market share is expected to remain at around 40%.
The next twenty years, the growth rate of carbon emissions by half
"Outlook" pointed out that the next 20 years, the growth rate of carbon emissions is expected to be reduced by half over the past twenty years, the annual growth rate from 2.1% to 0.9%. A sharp decline in the growth rate of carbon emissions reflects the faster improvements in energy efficiency and the reduction of energy carbon intensity, and the importance of these two factors is almost equal.
The world is beginning to transition to a low carbon energy system, the twenty-first session of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris last December marked an important step in this journey.
But it is predicted that carbon emissions will continue to grow, indicating that it is necessary to take further policy action. Setting a meaningful global carbon price is expected to be the most effective mechanism, which will help accelerate the pace of transition to a low-carbon world.
China related data
"Outlook" predicts that by 2035 China will account for 25% of the world's total energy consumption.
With the continuous evolution of China's energy structure, energy consumption per unit of China will fall by 46%.
"China huge market potential, it is self-evident for the importance of BP," BP China President Yang Hengming stressed that "BP has deep expertise and industry-leading technology, we are committed to China as trustworthy energy partners, to support the sustainable development of Chinese."
Other assumptions
In addition to the basic situation in previous years, this year's "Outlook" also discussed the other three cases of risk and uncertainty:
(1) slower global GDP growth;
(2) a more rapid transition to a low carbon world;
(3) more robust shale gas and tight oil growth.
Editorial remarks:
The latest version of "BP's World Energy Outlook (2016 Edition)" in February 10, 2016 released at 15:00 GMT.
Please go to bp.com.cn/energyoutlook2016 download the Chinese version of the Chinese version of the "Outlook" or the Chinese thematic analysis, and view video, animation and other materials.
The information at a glance:
By 2035, renewable energy contributed 1/4 of the world's primary energy growth, and more than 1/3 of the world's electricity generation increased.
In spite of the growth of the economy, the energy demand of the European Union in has returned to its level of 50 years ago, in 2035.
United States by 2021 to achieve the overall energy self-sufficiency, by 2030 to achieve self-sufficiency in oil.
By 2035, China will surpass the United States as the world's largest oil consumer, but the per capita oil consumption is still only 27% of the United states.
2014 to 2035, the incremental global natural gas consumption, the United States and Russia than the current total natural gas production even more.
By 2035, coal accounted for less than 25% of primary energy, the lowest proportion since the industrial revolution.
In the forecast period, China's increase in renewable energy sources than the EU and the United States together with a total increase of more.
Currently idle oil refining capacity and the next five years plans to add capacity, has been sufficient to meet the forecast period of growth in the supply of crude oil.
Editor: Li Jun
Tags: BP Energy Outlook
Despite the current global energy market weakness, China economic slowdown, but with the development of world economy, the world will need more energy to support economic and social activities are more active, the next twenty years and beyond energy demand will continue to grow.
"Outlook" pointed out that the global energy demand from 2014 to 2035 is expected to grow by 34%, the average annual growth of 1.4%. As the world begins to transition to a low-carbon future, in the process of overall growth in demand, energy structure will be significantly changed, the growth rate of low-carbon fuels will be more than carbon intensive fuels.
"Prospect" looks at the long-term energy development trend, and forecasts the development of the world energy market in the next twenty years. BP group chief economist Dai Sipan and BP group chief executive officer Dead in February this year in London jointly issued the "BP World Energy Outlook (2016 Edition)".
Dade Li said, "in the oil and gas prices continued to slump, it is important not only to adapt to the current grim situation, but also to prepare for the next series of challenges. Energy industry is a long cycle industry, we need to think about how we can change the pattern of energy in the long term."
"This year's" Outlook "shows that the world's demand for energy supply will continue to grow, but the energy supply structure is changing, the demand for carbon intensive fuels will be less and less. In spite of this, there is a need to take further policy action to achieve the limits of international carbon emissions targets."
Oil and gas is still an important source of growth.
Although other forms of energy increased rapidly, but the "Outlook" forecasts from now to 2035, fossil fuels will still be the main form of energy, will meet 60% of the energy demand is expected to increase, and accounted for nearly 80% of the world's total energy supply in 2035.
Natural gas will become the fastest growing fossil fuel, the annual growth rate of 1.8%. Oil will grow steadily at a rate of 0.9% a year, but its share in the energy mix will continue to fall. Coal growth is expected to slow sharply, in 2035 its share in the energy mix will fall to historic lows, while the natural gas will replace coal as the second largest source of fuel.
Growth in non fossil fuels is expected to exceed the expectations of last year's "outlook". Including bio fuels, including renewable energy is expected to grow by about 6.6% years, its proportion in the energy structure will increase from the current 9% to 3% in 2035.
Demand driven factors
Dai Sipan believes that, with the development of the world economy, will require more energy to support more active social and economic activities. Expected in the next 20 years, global energy demand will continue to grow."
Income and population are the main drivers of the growing demand for energy. By 2035, the world's population is expected to be close to 8 billion 800 million, which means that the need to provide energy for the 1 billion 500 million new population. In the same period, the global GDP is expected to grow more than double, while China and India will contribute half of the global GDP increment.
"The economy is China towards a more sustainable growth model reform, energy demand growth will Chinese slowed sharply, which will seriously inhibit the global coal demand, its growth will be less than 1/5 of the past 20 years." Dai Sipan explained, "the world is undergoing fundamental change, which is evident in the types and patterns of consumption."
More than half of the global energy consumption will be used to generate electricity, this part of the incremental mainly from the majority of the population lack sufficient power supply area.
Power generation industry is a kind of industry competing for all kinds of fuel. As renewable energy and natural gas power generation gradually replace the traditional thermal power generation, power generation industry will play an important role in the evolution of the fuel structure. Renewable energy power generation is expected to account for more than 1/3 of the expected power generation growth.
Strong growth in emerging economies will push up oil demand, while China and India account for more than half of the world's demand growth, while the number of cars in the world will double.
Supply increase
Benefit from strong growth in shale gas production in the world, the supply of natural gas will be steady improvement, annual growth is expected to reach 5.6%. Shale gas accounted for the proportion of total natural gas production will rise from 10% in 2014 to nearly 25% in 2035. At the end of the forecast period, China will be the country with the largest contribution to shale gas production.
By 2035, the global oil supply will increase by nearly 19 million barrels a day, the supply of non OPEC countries will lead growth - in particular, the United States shale oil. OPEC's market share is expected to remain at around 40%.
The next twenty years, the growth rate of carbon emissions by half
"Outlook" pointed out that the next 20 years, the growth rate of carbon emissions is expected to be reduced by half over the past twenty years, the annual growth rate from 2.1% to 0.9%. A sharp decline in the growth rate of carbon emissions reflects the faster improvements in energy efficiency and the reduction of energy carbon intensity, and the importance of these two factors is almost equal.
The world is beginning to transition to a low carbon energy system, the twenty-first session of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris last December marked an important step in this journey.
But it is predicted that carbon emissions will continue to grow, indicating that it is necessary to take further policy action. Setting a meaningful global carbon price is expected to be the most effective mechanism, which will help accelerate the pace of transition to a low-carbon world.
China related data
"Outlook" predicts that by 2035 China will account for 25% of the world's total energy consumption.
With the continuous evolution of China's energy structure, energy consumption per unit of China will fall by 46%.
"China huge market potential, it is self-evident for the importance of BP," BP China President Yang Hengming stressed that "BP has deep expertise and industry-leading technology, we are committed to China as trustworthy energy partners, to support the sustainable development of Chinese."
Other assumptions
In addition to the basic situation in previous years, this year's "Outlook" also discussed the other three cases of risk and uncertainty:
(1) slower global GDP growth;
(2) a more rapid transition to a low carbon world;
(3) more robust shale gas and tight oil growth.
Editorial remarks:
The latest version of "BP's World Energy Outlook (2016 Edition)" in February 10, 2016 released at 15:00 GMT.
Please go to bp.com.cn/energyoutlook2016 download the Chinese version of the Chinese version of the "Outlook" or the Chinese thematic analysis, and view video, animation and other materials.
The information at a glance:
By 2035, renewable energy contributed 1/4 of the world's primary energy growth, and more than 1/3 of the world's electricity generation increased.
In spite of the growth of the economy, the energy demand of the European Union in has returned to its level of 50 years ago, in 2035.
United States by 2021 to achieve the overall energy self-sufficiency, by 2030 to achieve self-sufficiency in oil.
By 2035, China will surpass the United States as the world's largest oil consumer, but the per capita oil consumption is still only 27% of the United states.
2014 to 2035, the incremental global natural gas consumption, the United States and Russia than the current total natural gas production even more.
By 2035, coal accounted for less than 25% of primary energy, the lowest proportion since the industrial revolution.
In the forecast period, China's increase in renewable energy sources than the EU and the United States together with a total increase of more.
Currently idle oil refining capacity and the next five years plans to add capacity, has been sufficient to meet the forecast period of growth in the supply of crude oil.
Editor: Li Jun
Tags: BP Energy Outlook
